Global Hydrogen Study Reveals Climate Impact of Future Clean Energy
- Authors
- Zutao Ouyang, Robert B Jackson, Marielle Saunois, Josep G Canadell, Yuanhong Zhao, Catherine Morfopoulos, Paul B Krummel, Prabir K Patra, Glen P Peters, Fraser Dennison, Thomas Gasser, Alexander T Archibald, Vivek Arora, Gabriel Baudoin, Naveen Chandra, Philippe Ciais, Steven J Davis, Sarah Feron, Fangzhou Guo, Didier Hauglustaine, Christopher D Jones, Matthew W Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R Melton, Julia E M S Nabel, Michael O'Sullivan, Gabrielle Pétron, Benjamin Poulter, Joeri Rogelj, David Sandoval Calle, Pete Smith, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Hanqin Tian, Chenghao Wang, Andy Wiltshire
- Journal
- Nature
- Year
- 2025
- DOI
- 10.1038/s41586-025-09806-1
- Study Type
- clinical
- Peer Reviewed
- Yes
- Country
- United States
- Health Condition
- Climate-Related Health Impacts
- Body System
- Respiratory
TL;DR
Scientists tracked where hydrogen comes from and goes in our atmosphere, and found that using more hydrogen as a fuel source might warm the planet a tiny bit—about 0.02°C so far, with potentially 0.01-0.05°C more warming in the future. This matters because we're planning to use way more hydrogen to fight climate change, so we need to make sure we're not accidentally creating a different problem by using it.
Key Finding
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Summary
Researchers conducted the first comprehensive global hydrogen budget analysis covering 1990-2020, examining all sources and sinks of atmospheric hydrogen. They found hydrogen sources averaged 69.9 Tg per year while sinks averaged 68.4 Tg per year during 2010-2020. Rising atmospheric hydrogen contributed approximately 0.02°C to global surface temperature increase. The study reveals that while hydrogen is considered clean energy, it has indirect warming effects through interactions with methane and ozone. Future hydrogen economy scenarios could add 0.01-0.05°C warming depending on production methods, leakage rates, and usage patterns, highlighting need for careful implementation strategies.
Abstract
Hydrogen (H2) will play a part in decarbonizing the global energy system1. However, hydrogen interacts with methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapour, leading to an indirect 100-year global warming potential of 11 ± 4 (refs. 2-5). This raises concerns about the climate consequences of increasing H2 use under future hydrogen economies3,5. A comprehensive accounting of H2 sources and sinks is essential for assessing changes and mitigating environmental risks. Here we analyse trends in global H2 sources and sinks from 1990 to 2020 and construct a comprehensive budget for the decade 2010-2020. H2 sources increased from 1990 to 2020, primarily because of the oxidation of methane and anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds, biogenic nitrogen fixation, and leakage from H2 production. Sinks also increased in response to rising atmospheric H2. Estimated global H2 sources and sinks averaged 69.9 ± 9.4 Tg yr-1 and 68.4 ± 18.1 Tg yr-1, respectively, for 2010-2020. Regionally, Africa and South America contained the largest sources and sinks of H2, whereas East Asia and North America contributed the most H2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. We estimate that rising atmospheric H2 between 2010 and 2020 contributed to an increase in global surface air temperature (GSAT) of 0.02 ± 0.006 °C. GSAT impacts of changing atmospheric H2 in future marker Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios are estimated to remain within 0.01-0.05 °C, depending on H2 usage, leakage rates and CH4 emissions that influence photochemical H2 production.